The Economy Grew in 2022. Are Experts Still Predicting a Recession in 2023?

Thursday’s robust economic growth report led some analysts to scale back their predictions for a recession this year. Most, however, still think at least a “mild recession” is likely. 

For Context: The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Thursday that real (inflation-adjusted) U.S. GDP grew 2.9% in the fourth quarter of 2022, pulling the year’s overall growth up to 2.1%. While the first two quarters of 2022 saw negative growth, those contractions were relatively smaller than past recessions: -1.6% and -0.6% versus Q4 2008’s -8.5%. Despite the economy’s growth in the second half of 2022, most Americans still believed the U.S. was in a recession. That belief could become reality in 2023, according to many economists. The Federal Reserve’s anti-inflation interest rate hikes have raised the cost of borrowing, cooling business activity and the previously-hot housing market. Sensing a downturn, tech companies that hired extensively during the COVID-19 pandemic are now laying off thousands of workers. 

What Media Voices Are Saying: Commentators across the spectrum generally agreed that while 2022’s growth was good news, the economy still faced a likely recession. However, voices disagreed on how mild or severe the downturn would likely be; some voices from the right focused on potential warning signs.