Flipping seven US Senate seats, dozens of House districts, and five governorships, Democrats objectively dominated the 2026 Midterm Elections. But a handful of ballot measures and races contradicted states’ supposed political affiliations.

Gubernatorial Races

2024 presidential results (top) versus 2026 gubernatorial results (bottom)

Vermont voters elected Republican Phil Scott for his sixth gubernatorial term on November 3, despite voting for Democratic candidates in every presidential election since 1988 and simultaneously electing a Democratic lieutenant governor, US representative, US senator, attorney general, secretary of state, treasurer and auditor. Scott beat Democrat Amanda Janoo roughly 53% to 46%.

In the 2024 Presidential Election, Vermont was one of only 19 states and Washington DC to vote for Democrat Kamala Harris. Yet prior to the nearly forty-year old blue streak, the state elected only Republicans in presidential elections dating back to 1964.

New Hampshire voters similarly elected Republican Kelly Ayotte for her second gubernatorial term, despite voting blue in presidential elections since 2000 and flipping both its US House and Senate seats from red to blue. Ayotte beat Democrat Cinde Warmington roughly 51% to 47%.

Vermont (top) and New Hampshire (bottom) presidential voting history via The American Vote

So, why the flips? And why didn’t voters’ presidential and gubernatorial parties align?

Both Scott and Ayotte ran local-focused campaigns, unlike Trump-tied candidates such as Vivek Ramaswamy (R-OH) and Byron Donalds (R-FL) and progressives such as Kathy Hochul (D-NY) and Maura Healey (D-MA). VT Digger (Center bias) highlighted voters’ support for Scott’s more moderate state-level policies and suggested that his more conservative ones “are more easily assigned to factors outside the state’s control.” His campaign website stresses the values of family, entrepreneurship, and “statewide solutions,” and Ayotte’s touts local initiatives such as childcare scholarships, no new taxes, and special education expansions.

Scott ran a similar campaign to Charlie Baker, who served as Massachusetts governor from 2015-2023, though the state – like Vermont – has elected Democrats for president since 1988. Critics from local rivals to President Trump labeled Baker a “RINO” (Republican-In-Name-Only), but his more moderate, economic-focused terms resulted in him leaving office with high approval ratings, “even in a time of national political turbulence and divisiveness,” according to a UMass Amherst/WCVB poll.

2026 Vermont gubernatorial results via AP

Meanwhile, in Massachusetts’ latest gubernatorial race, Republican Mike Minogue lost by nearly double the percentage points of Maura Healey (about 62% to 33%), despite a well-funded campaign and Healey’s controversial progressive values. The race’s results closely reflected the state’s presidential support for Harris over Trump in 2024 (about 61% to 36%). Throughout her campaign, Healey choicely labeled Minogue a “MAGA” Republican and highlighted his financial support of Trump, who reached record-low approval ratings ahead of the election.

2026 New Hampshire gubernatorial results via AP

VT Digger analyzed, “Many Vermonters don’t see Scott in Trump’s light.” The “Voice of Working Vermonters,” as Scott advertises himself, specifically said he would not endorse Trump in the 2016, 2020, and 2024 presidential elections and even touted support for impeachment in 2020.

Ayotte, on the other hand, did endorse Trump in 2024, flipping her opposition from 2016, but she defended pushback in stating, “This election is now a choice between Trump and [then-incumbant] Biden, and my choice is President Trump” and has since distanced herself from his campaign.

Ballot Measures

Washington and Colorado both passed propositions to ban transgender women in women’s sports, despite electing Democrats. Colorado also voted to ban gender transition surgeries for minors and increase penalties for sex trafficking and fentanyl related changes. Although these are positions typically associated with the right as opposed to the left, they also align with the majority of Americans. For example, a 2025 NBC News Stay Tuned Poll found that 75% of respondents were opposed to trans women in female sports leagues. A 2024 poll conducted by Noble Predictive Insights found that 59% of respondents favored a national ban on puberty blockers and transgender surgeries for minors.

Ohio, Nevada, and North Carolina all passed voter ID amendments to their state constitutions, which were all states in which Democrats won big. Thirty-six states have some form of voter identification required by law, and Ohio, Nevada, and North Carolina all already required some form of ID, the measures simply enshrined the law into their constitutions. Voter ID measures did fail in California and Colorado, however. Voter ID is popular with Americans: a 2025 Pew Research Center (Center) poll found 95% of Republicans and 71% of Democrats favor requiring voters to show government-issued photo identification at the polls. California’s measure, had it passed, would have been one of the strictest in the nation.

California, one of the bluest states in the nation, rejected a wealth tax proposition that would have imposed a one-time 5% on individuals in California with a net worth over $1 billion as of January 1, 2026. This could be partially due to the fact that the state is already seeing wealthy taxpayers move out of state. Fox Business (Lean Right) reported that 17,496 taxpayers with $1.9 billion in income left Los Angeles county for other states in 2022 to 2023. There were also millions poured into a campaign against the proposition by leaders and investors at Google, Palantir, DoorDash, Stripe, Reddit, saying the proposition would hurt everyday people.

What Does this Mean for Governing?

The success of popular Republican governors and conservative ballot measures in otherwise blue states shows that Americans are still largely moderate. Swing voters are still likely to vote for popular measures and conservative candidates who aren’t aligned with President Trump, showing that perhaps the blue wave was more about rebuking the administration than wanting the country to shift to the left and perhaps Democrats are running on more moderate issues central to the majority of Americans. It seems like recently-elected Democrats from historically red states understand this and some are moving toward a bipartisan approach.

The Texas Governor-elect Gina Hinojosa has named a Republican lawmaker to her transition team, Ohio Governor-elect Amy Acton pledged to have at least one Republican in her cabinet, and Senator-elect Adam Hamilton of Kansas pledged bipartisan cooperation with his Republican counterpart Sen. Jerry Moran.

How much voters are really “blue” or simply anti-Trump in a political system when voting blue is the only other viable option, remains somewhat of an open question, especially when more voters than ever are identifying as independent. The increase of independence and decrease in party loyalty, making people willing to cross party lines and split tickets will certainly affect elections in years to come.

Malayna J. Bizier is a News Analyst and Social Media Editor for AllSides. She has a Right bias.

Clare Ashcraft is a Media Analyst, Bridging Coordinator, and Product Manager for AllSides. She has a Center bias. Reviewed by Education Experience Manager & News Editor Emily Allen (Left bias).