Johnson’s future speakership could hinge on the spending fight

Mike Johnson has spent the first 10 months of his speakership balancing the needs of the House Republican majority with the demands of his rebellious right flank. Now he faces one final legislative test before he asks GOP lawmakers to let him keep the gavel next year: A September spending fight.

With a government shutdown deadline looming on Oct. 1, Johnson has two choices: Lean into conservative priorities and risk chaos weeks before the election, or work on a bipartisan basis to keep the government running, likely angering his right flank. Johnson has opted for the former, at least as his opening move. And it’s not hard to see why: The speaker has faced repeated ouster threats from conservatives, so he needs to shore up support among that group if he wants to keep his gavel next year.

It’s almost impossible to truly satisfy their spending demands — a band of hard-liners is leading the push for a stopgap funding bill that kicks the shutdown deadline into March and includes a proposal that would require proof of citizenship to register to vote. Johnson is planning to tee that up in the House as a way to squeeze Democrats on the issue, but it’s doomed in the Democratic-controlled Senate. And he faces significant pressure from other Republicans who don’t want a shutdown so close to an election.