Trump’s conviction is not the time for snap political analysis

Now what? Now that Donald Trump is the first current or former president convicted of a felony, what does that mean for the 2024 presidential election? It’s a valid question — without an instant answer. And that’s not popular in a world that rewards, and sometimes requires, instant insightful analysis. 

It’s just not possible, as the country has never seen this before. The word “unprecedented” gets thrown around too easily, but it truly applies in this situation.

So it’s healthy to be skeptical when anyone asserts that they know exactly how this conviction is going to play out in the election. I’m reminded by comedian John Mulaney’s “horse in a hospital” bit to explain so-called experts trying to fit Trump into conventional analysis. It doesn’t work.