Murder Rates Are Plummeting. What Should We Make of It?

A few weeks ago, I watched as several people, myself included, stepped on a bit of a digital landmine. The landmine: celebrating declining murder rates.

Homicides spiked in 2020. The trend was real and worrisome. It understandably put many people on edge, particularly in the context of a 24-hour news cycle that favors content that bleeds. But those murderous numbers dropped substantially in 2023 and are, quite thankfully, continuing to retreat significantly. So what should we make of the new data? What are the appropriate caveats? And where are we now in comparison to the Before Times (in this case, before COVID-19)?