Russia’s Mutiny Shows Ukraine Can Win the War

The immediate crisis in Russia is over, as Wagner PMC leader Yevgeny Prigozhin stopped his armed mutiny after two days, with little to show for it. But the cracks in Russia the revolt revealed—and will further stress—show how Ukraine’s strategy can ultimately succeed.

Ukraine just needs the Russian government to change its mind and accept Ukrainian independence. That’s much easier said than done. But it doesn’t require total battlefield victory, nor for Vladimir Putin to fall (though that could do the trick).

While the mutiny didn’t turn into a coup attempt or civil war, as some observers rushed to declare, it did highlight the sort of growing internal divisions that could eventually end the conflict. That provides some validation for earlier Ukrainian gambles aimed at heightening those divisions, most notably in Bakhmut, and indicates that successes in Ukraine’s counteroffensive this year would add further stress.