Ukraine Strikes Iranian Ship in Caspian Sea, Iran Vows Retaliation

Ukraine struck an Iranian vessel in the Caspian Sea on Saturday that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy claimed was "involved in the transportation of military cargo." Iran accused Ukraine of acting "at Israel's behest" and said the attack "cannot go unanswered."

The Details: Zelenskyy said the Ukrainian military had "very good results of long-range strikes in the waters of the Caspian Sea" against multiple vessels. Iran's Foreign Ministry said the strikes were a "hostile and criminal act" that blew up the ship, killing one sailor and leaving others injured. Iran claimed the vessel was a commercial one, while Zelenskyy did not specify. Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi said he held calls with EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas and Russia's top diplomat, Sergei Lavrov.

For Context: Ukraine and Russia both border the Black Sea. Separated by the Caucasus region, the Caspian Sea is bordered by Russia and Iran.

Foreign Media Coverage: The Times of Israel (Center bias) noted that Israel's Channel 12 said Ukraine informed Israel that the ships were carrying Iranian weapons to Russia. Kremlin-funded RT (Lean Right) noted that Tehran denied this and said the cargo was entirely civilian. The Kyiv Independent (Center) said Ukraine's intelligence service, the SBU, said the ship was evading international sanctions and carrying military cargo to Russia. According to Iranian state media, Tehran has summoned Ukraine's chargé d'affaires.

Iran-Russia Partnership: In October 2022, nearly eight months after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine began, Reuters (Center) reported Iran had agreed to provide Russia with surface-to-surface missiles and "more drones," according to anonymous Iranian officials. A few weeks later, Iran denied the report and said it provided Russia with a "small number" of drones months before the February invasion and that the "missile part is completely wrong."

Drone Origins: Russia has since used drones widely in combat against Ukraine, but RT highlighted that Russia allegedly uses "​​Geran-2 drones" that are "believed to be based on the Shahed-136 design" and "produced domestically." Though many Western and Ukrainian outlets have continued to describe the drones as Shaheds since 2022, in Reuters' October 2022 report, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said, "Russian equipment with Russian nomenclature is used" in Ukraine. On Sunday, Romania said it shot down a drone over its airspace that President Nicușor Dan described as a "Shahed-type." On Friday, the US shot down a Shahed drone for the first time in Iran using a counterattack drone that an unnamed US official told Business Insider (Lean Left) it had tested in Ukraine.

Recent Comments: Back in March, Zelenskyy told NBC News (Lean Left) that he was "100%" sure Moscow had shared intelligence with Iran to help it target US forces in the Middle East. In June at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, President Vladimir Putin said Russia had never supplied Tehran with weapons and that Tehran had never inquired.

Israel-Ukraine Relations: In May, Ukraine's ambassador to Israel, Yevgen Korniychuk, expressed an interest in working with Israel on drone warfare and said, "We are fighting from a different angle against the same axis of evil." When the US and Israel assassinated Iran's Supreme Leader in February, Ukraine wrote on X, "nothing beats the death of a dictator 🥳." In his successful 2019 bid for the presidency, one of Zelenskyy's key backers was Ukrainian-Israeli oligarch Ihor Kolomoyskyi, who has been detained on suspicion of fraud and money laundering in Kyiv since September 2023.

Potential Motives: Fortune (Center) published an analysis that compiled several hypotheses on why Ukraine may have attacked the Iranian ship. Among them were the idea that Ukraine potentially wanted to demonstrate its value as an ally to the US and Israel or that it was meant to signal to Iran that its Caspian coast is at risk and could be leveraged by the US in negotiations.

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