House Dems’ surprise win in New York special election shakes GOP’s predicted ‘red wave’ in November

Democrats hope Pat Ryan’s unexpected win in a special election to fill a vacant House seat in New York’s 19th Congressional District is a sign that the Republican Party’s “red wave” will be reduced to a puddle come November.

Top analysts Wednesday downgraded the Republicans’ outlook in the midterm elections and said Democrats may even hang on to their slim majority after Mr. Ryan’s surprise win over Republican Marcus Molinaro.

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report, which provides analysis of elections and campaigns, took notice of Mr. Ryan’s win and lowered its forecast for Republican gains in the House.

Based on “recent developments, we’ve revised our outlook to a 10-20 seat GOP gain, w/Dems maintaining control not out of the question,” said Dave Wasserman, a senior editor at the report.

The revision marked a drastic change from May, when Mr. Wasserman said House Republicans were on track to gain 20 to 35 seats.