GOP's Midterm 'Red Wave' Risks Becoming Ripple, Post-Dobbs Voting Suggests

Changes in voter turnout in several special elections over the summer suggest Republican candidates are losing their advantage in battleground districts around the country in the months since the United States Supreme Court overturned landmark abortion protections established under Roe v. Wade with their Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization ruling.

In New York, Democrat Pat Ryan won a special election in the Republican-leaning 19th Congressional District against Marc Molinaro, a moderate Republican considered to be one of the National Republican Campaign Committee's top prospects in its bid to gain control of the House next year. In the nearby 23rd District, Democrat Max Della Pia lost by single digits in his special election loss to Joe Sempolinski, a five-point swing from former President Donald Trump's margin of victory in the district just two years early.

Where Republicans seemed poised for dominance after surging in special elections following the Supreme Court's Dobbs decision, Republican candidates saw their margins of victory shrink substantially in a pair of special elections in Trump-heavy districts in Nebraska and Minnesota, signifying a greater change was afoot in the electorate.