U.S. sanctions on China are means without an end

U.S. sanctions on China over Hong Kong would ratchet up tensions between the two superpowers, but with no obvious goal beyond punishment. President Donald Trump on Friday says he would take steps to slap penalties on officials of the People’s Republic. The first move of its kind would escalate tensions, yet it probably won’t deter Beijing and could spur retaliation.

After months of holding back in response to Hong Kong unrest, the White House has taken aggressive action. A day after the Chinese parliament approved moving forward with legislation tackling secession and subversion in the territory, Trump said he would hold PRC officials linked to “smothering Hong Kong’s freedom” responsible but didn’t provide details. He also said he would eliminate policy exemptions for the city. Earlier this week, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo declared Hong Kong was no longer autonomous, opening the door to ending special treatment relating to travel and trade.

Other pressure points on China, like Trump’s trade war, had a clear end game. At least some tariffs on about $370 billion of Chinese imports would be rolled back if a trade deal was reached. A so-called Phase One pact was signed in January, when Beijing agreed to purchase $200 billion in additional U.S. goods over two years.

It’s unclear what China could do to persuade Washington to roll back potential new sanctions except scrap the Hong Kong law. Trump’s predecessor Barack Obama imposed similar penalties on Iran to bring the country to the negotiating table, resulting in a nuclear deal and the easing of sanctions. Trump reinstated the restrictions with the aim of putting more conditions on the pact.