How Seth Moulton Could Win The 2020 Democratic Primary

Monday morning, Seth Moulton, the 40-year-old congressman from Massachusetts, officially announced he is running for president on “Good Morning America.” While Moulton might not yet be a household name, he fits neatly into a certain mold of 2020 candidate — the young, ambitious U.S. representatives who feel their time has come. Like Tim Ryan, he has criticized Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s leadership of the party; like Eric Swalwell, he toppled an incumbent to win his seat the first time; and like Tulsi Gabbard, he served in the military. But though he has little to lose by running, Moulton, like his colleagues, will have to overcome history — not to mention several better-known candidates — to win the nomination.

One thing Moulton has in his favor is an impressive résumé. A Marine Corps veteran with three Harvard degrees, Moulton served four tours in Iraq and won two medals for valor that he kept under wraps until the Boston Globe broke the story just before he was elected to Congress in 2014. Earlier that year, he had mounted a successful primary challenge against nine-term Rep. John Tierney, who enjoyed the support of major figures like Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren even though a few years before he had weathered a scandal arising from his wife’s involvement in an offshore gambling ring. Moulton’s internal polling found him starting from 54 points behind the incumbent, but he saturated the airwaves with TV ads and Tierney failed to take the threat seriously until it was too late; Moulton won by 10 points. He has now represented the posh suburban Massachusetts 6th District for four years, meaning he enters his presidential campaign with plenty of experience appealing to wealthy and well-educated voters. However, he has not yet shown he can woo nonwhite voters, who are approximately two-fifths of the national Democratic primary electorate but just 12 percent of his district’s citizen voting-age population, according to a Daily Kos calculation. And Moulton’s worst performance in the 2014 primary came in the city of Lynn — the only majority-minority community in the district.

But Moulton has several assets that could make him a serious contender. He has reportedly already retained a team of several campaign staffers and advisers, and he has been working with prominent Democratic polling firm The Mellman Group. He is a strong fundraiser, having raised $10.9 million over the last three election cycles between his campaign and his political action committee, including at least $1.6 million before the 2014 primary. His PAC was active in 2018 and helped to elect other Democratic veterans and “next generation leaders,” with Moulton campaigning for candidates in 16 states. Twenty-one of the PAC’s endorsees won seats in Congress, with several sharing Moulton’s moderate politics and even his opposition to Pelosi becoming speaker. None of the Democratic Party operatives we’re tracking have endorsed him yet, but given how many new members of Congress owe their seats at least in part to his PAC, he may pick some up soon.