US on Track for Record Single-Year Drop in Murders, Data Shows

The US is on track for the largest single-year decline in murders on record, according to analysis of the Real Time Crime Index (RTCI). It follows an increase in violence during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Details: Crime analyst Jeff Asher said preliminary data from the RTCI shows murders are down nearly 20% nationwide in 2025 compared to 2024 and follows a 13.1% decline from 2023 to 2024. The RTCI, which compiles reported crime data from nearly 600 law enforcement agencies and is updated regularly, also shows declines across other crime categories, including robberies (down 18.3%), property crime (down 12.3%) and aggravated assault (down 7.5%). Asher said roughly 12,000 fewer people were murdered in 2024 and 2025 combined than in 2020 and 2021, but cautioned that 2025 figures remain preliminary until finalized FBI estimates are released.

For Context: RTCI estimates have historically tracked closely with federal figures, according to Axios (Lean Left bias). It tracks "willful (non-negligent) killings," aligning closely with FBI definitions, though doesn't consider manslaughter, self-defense, negligence or "accidental killings" in its database. Some researchers attribute much of the decline to the country moving beyond pandemic-era disruptions, which coincided with elevated violence. RTCI statistics are currently available through October, and the FBI won't release official 2025 violent crime data until next year.

How the Media Covered It: Outlets including NPR (Lean Left) and PBS (Lean Left) noted caution the numbers could rise again. NPR stressed the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, and said researchers "weren't optimistic the decline would continue" after funding cuts to community safety programs in 2025. It also characterized President Trump's rhetoric about high crime rates in Democrat-led cities as exaggerated and "disconnected" from reality as they've "seen crime falling in recent years." The Hill (Center) and Newsmax (Right) both noted Trump's targeted efforts to reduce crime in cities like Chicago, Washington, DC and New York through deploying the National Guard. Newsmax quoted FBI Director Kash Patel who said 2025's homicide rate will be the lowest in "modern history" and credited a bureau-wide shift toward fighting violent crime.

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