Bolsonaro Wins First Round of Brazilian Election, Will Face Lula in Runoff

Conservative Flávio Bolsonaro, son of the house-arrested former president of Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro, won more of the vote than the incumbent progressive President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the first round of Brazil's presidential election. The two will head to a runoff vote on October 25.

The Results: Bolsonaro and his right-wing Liberal Party won 47.03% of the vote while Lula and his left-wing Workers' Party won 45.16%. Notably, three other candidates from parties on the right took 2.18%, 2.24%, and 2.89% of the vote. The remaining candidates accounted for less than half a percent.

'Big Win': Reuters (Center bias) said the "biggest winner" was former President Bolsonaro and said the result makes his son Flávio the favorite to win the runoff. Reuters prominently called the result an "upset" and something that "pundits linked to a right-wing wave sweeping the region and Lula's own campaign missteps." It also described Jair as Flávio's "biggest ally" who "loomed large over the race" despite being unable to appear in public.

'End of an Era': An opinion from The Economist (Left) argued that Sunday's result brings the end of a quarter-century-long era where "a left-wing alliance of trade-unionists, progressive Catholics and academics built a large welfare state and defined Latin America's version of social democracy." It wrote in its subheading, "The Bolsonaro clan promises to align with Donald Trump, and to attack democratic institutions." The Economist described Bolsonaro's campaign as one of "vengeance," noting he promised to free his father and said, "Brazilians have good reasons to reject the PT for its dead-end policies, its own corruption and the lack of fresh leadership. But they also have every reason to fear where that rejection now leads."

For Context: In September 2025, Jair Bolsonaro was sentenced to 27 years in prison and banned from running for public office for his effort to cling on to power after being defeated by Lula in the 2022 election. Previously, Lula served as Brazil's president from 2003 to 2011 and in 2017 was convicted for corruption. He spent 580 days in jail, though his charges were later annulled by Brazil's Supreme Court.

RELATED: Brazilian Supreme Court Sentences Former President Bolsonaro to 27 Years in Prison | AllSides

USAID-Related?: Posts circulated on social media after Bolsonaro's Sunday victory that claimed no left-wing parties have won elections in Latin America since the Trump administration reformed USAID. Donald Trump Jr. wrote, "Since we gutted USAID, the left hasn't won a single presidential election in Latin America. Billions in taxpayer cash were funding NGOs, 'democracy' programs, and activist networks that conveniently always backed the same side. They called it aid but it was election interference." ZeroHedge (Lean Right) wrote in its coverage, "It's fascinating to watch this shift unfold as USAID funding has dried up." It added, "The right has taken advantage of an open window to gain political ground and turn frustration into electoral gains." Writing for UnHerd (Center), David Agren pushed back on the idea. Agren said there is "a kernel of truth" in the theory, but that it "overlooks the fact" that "left-wing" and, in some cases, "anti-American" governments in Latin America either expelled USAID long ago or celebrated its recent demise.

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