Pete Hegseth’s Taiwan speech risks conflict with China

Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth recently gave a speech at the Shangri-La forum in Singapore. The speech was intended to reassure America’s allies that Washington is working to establish credible deterrence in East Asia. Yet the address is also likely to leave the region in an even more combustible state than it was before.

This is because Hegseth seems to have underestimated how rapidly the military balance has shifted in China’s favour. Even more importantly, he failed to seek any serious common ground with Beijing or acknowledge US interests as they relate to Taiwan.

That lack of diplomatic nuance was compounded by the way Hegseth framed America’s broader strategic priorities. In making the case for Donald Trump’s America First foreign policy, he stressed that the Western Hemisphere—not Asia—was the true focus, pointing to the Panama Canal as a key battleground for US-Chinese rivalry. Meanwhile, US allies in Asia received little encouragement; Hegseth offered them “tough love,” contrasting their efforts unfavourably with those of a “model ally” like Poland. Indeed, Japan’s defence spending remains under 2% of GDP and may not reach even that target until 2027.