My Expectations for the Economic Effects of Tariffs

If Trump is actually going to do unilateral tariffs on Mexico and Canada tomorrow -- remember, he said once before that there was nothing they could do to avoid them and then changed his mind, and the whole thing is legally questionable and could be stopped by the courts -- here's what I expect the economic effects to be:

Negligible effect on the inflation rate, as measured by the CPI index or the PCE index. If inflation doesn't budge, expect a bunch of Trump boosters to try to say they told you so, when in reality, we wouldn't expect tariffs