Almost Every Bet Traders Made on Trump in 2025 Has Gone Awry

In December, before Donald Trump’s return to the White House, a market consensus was building: Long the dollar, short government bonds, and favor American stocks over the rest of the world.

Five weeks into the new year, these bets are misfiring. US stocks are up, but the S&P 500 is trailing an index of international equities by roughly 2 percentage points. After an initial spike, yields on 10-year notes have pulled back, sitting below 4.5%. The dollar has weakened by about 1% against a basket of major currencies, marking the worst start to a year since 2018.