China’s Slowdown Has Changed the Trade War

The China that President-elect Donald Trump will face in 2025 is fundamentally different than the one he encountered when his first administration began in 2017, or even the one with which he negotiated a trade deal near the end of his term. Now, for the first time in more than four decades, China’s share of the world economy is shrinking—it peaked at just above 18 percent of global GDP in 2021 and stands at around 16 percent today.

China’s growth has slowed significantly since the property sector collapsed in 2021 and COVID-related restrictions impeded all types of economic activity in 2022. Domestic demand and...