How China could try to strangle Taiwan without firing a shot

When most people imagine what war in the Taiwan Strait might look like, scenes out of eastern Ukraine in 2022 or even Normandy in 1944 tend to come to mind.

Picture transport ships from China facing incoming anti-ship missiles; missile strikes blowing holes in airfields and key military installations; hilltop-to-hilltop fighting over rugged mountainous terrain; and urban warfare amid the skyscrapers of densely populated cities. If Washington came to Taiwan’s aid in the event of a full-scale war, experts believe that in just a few weeks of intense naval warfare, the US could face the kind of casualties not seen since the Second World War.

Versions of these scenarios loom heavily over policy debates in Washington, DC. Chinese President Xi Jinping has repeatedly vowed to achieve “reunification” with Taiwan, and barely a day goes by without Chinese jets and ships encroaching on Taiwan’s space. In recent days, China responded to Taiwanese President William Lai’s stopover in Hawaii during an international trip by deploying the largest naval fleet in decades to waters near Taiwan, the latest example of a pattern in which Beijing uses military drills to signal its displeasure over displays of Taiwanese sovereignty. Many US policymakers and experts believe China aims to be ready to seize the island by 2027, and that fear has driven a good portion of American strategic planning and billions of dollars in defense spending in recent years.