The one number that could decide the fate of Biden and Trump

The outcome of the presidential election isn’t likely to hinge on abortion, immigration or even climate change. It is likely to depend, instead, on the price of gasoline in the leadup to the vote.

The average nationwide price for a gallon of regular unleaded gas is currently $3.59 per gallon. This is about halfway between the recent low of less than $2 at the height of the pandemic, when much of the world was sheltering in place, and the high of $5 in 2022 as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and resulting sanctions on Russian oil were having their greatest impact.

Based on my econometric analysis of past presidential election outcomes looking at the state electoral college vote, which accounts for a wide range of political and economic factors, if gasoline falls toward $3 a gallon by election day, President Joe Biden should win re-election. However, if pump prices rise to more than $4, former President Donald Trump is more likely to prevail. This assumes any other changes in the economy and the political situation that could sway voters by election day are more or less a wash.