Don’t misread Trump’s loss in his civil trial

Between March and August, prosecutors indicted former President Donald Trump four times for alleged crimes. In September, New York civil court Judge Arthur Engoron ruled that Trump had committed business fraud when seeking financing for his real estate deals, and on Friday Engoron imposed his penalties for the civil offenses: The judge ordered Trump to pay $355 million in damages; he also banned Trump from serving as an officer or a director of a business in New York for the next three years.

While Friday’s ruling seems like a significant setback for Trump, it more likely will end up as a defeat for the legal system. So far, the prosecutions of Trump have been followed by an increase in his support and a decline in public trust in the legal process, at least among Republicans.

From July to December, Trump’s support among Republican primary voters rose from 54% to 64%. Last month, Trump trounced his competition in the Iowa caucuses, more than doubling his 2016 Iowa vote, and he also cruised to a first-place finish in the New Hampshire primary. Even among all Americans, Trump seems to be doing better. In Wall Street Journal polls, President Joe Biden’s 2 point lead in December 2022 flipped to a 4 point Trump lead this past December.