What Niger’s coup means for Nigeria

A lot of Western media coverage of Niger’s coup has focused on the implications for the country’s European and American allies. But today we’re going to home in on the perhaps more important consequences for neighboring Nigeria, West Africa’s local hegemon, and its newly-elected President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

West Africa has seen a number of other coups in recent years and as president of the continent’s most populous country, Tinubu has taken on a critical leadership role. He also last month became chair of the Economic Community of West African States, which Nigeria helped to create and has traditionally been Africa’s most effective regional forum at resolving conflicts, but has recently struggled in its efforts to return countries in revolt to democracy.

What happens in Niger is a test for Tinubu’s foreign policy and for ECOWAS.

“Not only will failure to act send a signal that Tinubu and ECOWAS can only bark, but not bite, it will embolden military adventurers in other West African countries as well as the Russia-backed Wagner Group,” Ebenezer Obadare, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, told Global Insider.