TikTok Video Mangles American Cancer Society Breast Cancer Estimates

Breast cancer in American women under 50 increased gradually from the mid-1990s through 2019, with a somewhat steeper rise starting in 2016. The rate of female breast cancer also rose slowly in older women from the mid-2000s through 2019.

Researchers say these changes were likely at least partly due to changes in when people begin having children and, for older women, increasing body weight. Being overweight after menopause or having children later in life increases the risk of breast cancer.

Breast cancer incidence fell for all women and women under 50 in 2020, likely because disruptions to health care appointments during the pandemic led to missed diagnoses. The year 2020 is the latest one for which official federal statistics on cancer incidence are available.

The American Cancer Society, a nonprofit organization, provides estimates of annual new cancer cases through 2023, but these projections are based on models using data from 2019 and earlier. 

Yet a popular post on TikTok, which also was shared on Facebook, misrepresents these ACS projections, using them to give the false appearance of a large spike in breast cancer cases in women younger than 45 in 2022 and 2023.