The Insight: Is Violent Crime Down in the US?

Crime is falling in the US, and politicians are rushing to claim credit. But who deserves it? And is it truly commendable, or has a bad situation just become… less bad?

The Insight provides you the full picture of facts and viewpoints on a top issue for Americans each week, powered by your questions and balanced answers from our multipartisan news team.

The Questions

Where has crime fallen? Has it risen elsewhere?

According to a July report released by the Council on Criminal Justice (CCJ), the homicide rate in the US declined over the first half of 2026. FBI data also showed that violent crime has fallen at a “historic rate,” showing a 9.3% drop in 2025, the largest year-to-year decline since the FBI started tracking crime trends in 1936.

The CCJ report examined 13 different types of crime across 36 different cities, though only 30 of the cities provided homicide data. Eight cities saw rises in murder since last year. Norfolk led the way with a 64% increase, while San Francisco followed with a 55% spike. Dallas and Salt Lake City also had significant jumps, and Austin, Denver, Chicago, and Charlotte saw minor increases.

Read AllSides’ July coverage of the report here.

Previously, in January, the CCJ published a report for the second half of 2025 which found the national homicide rate dropped by 21% to its lowest level since 1900.

A CNN (Lean Left bias) article highlighted a different study from the Major Cities Chiefs Association that showed homicides dropped significantly in Chicago and New York in 2025. According to the analysis, New York saw the lowest rate of shooting victims and shooting incidents in recorded history. Also, according to The New York Times (Lean Left), Baltimore has recorded fewer homicides in 2026 than ever at this point in the year.

Who deserves credit for the drop?

The New York Post (Right) article highlighted the low murder rate and said, “The plunge in violence has only continued accelerating so far in 2026.”

The White House in August published an article that claimed President Donald Trump and his administration “have delivered the most dramatic decline in violent crime in American history.” The article added that the data marks “the decisive reversal of the crime crisis Democrats left behind.”

The New York Times (Lean Left) pushed back and said the “trend began before the president’s current term.” The paper cited “expert on crime statistics” Jeff Asher, who said, “the drops were not necessarily surprising, given the trends in recent years.” The article claimed that Trump “made sweeping, exaggerated claims,” including saying that his “efforts to limit immigration and increase deportations” and “his personal support for law enforcement had helped bring about the change.”

Fox News (Right), in its coverage of the CCJ’s report for the first half of 2026, also highlighted the perspective of someone not surprised by the statistics. But instead of alluding to the idea that the trend began before Trump, it quoted an administration official, Assistant Homeland Security Secretary Lauren Bis, who said the drop “coincides with deportations of dangerous criminal illegal aliens.”

The DHS also released an article that cited historically low crime rates, and highlighted “examples of the worst criminal illegal aliens who have been deported from the United States.”

Previously, though, some nonprofits pushed back against this narrative. The Migration Policy Institute (MPI) said in 2024 that immigrants “commit crimes at lower rates than the U.S.-born population.” Before that, in 2017, The Sentencing Project echoed the sentiment and said: “higher levels of immigration in recent decades may have contributed to the historic drop in crime rates.”

More recently, in early August, Pew Research Center (Center), instead of crediting or discrediting any one political leader, said that while “no single cause explains the improvement,” experts “offered several potential explanations–from greater federal funding for cities to more focused law enforcement to community-led interventions.”

Which types of crime have increased or decreased?

According to the White House website, murder dropped by 18% from 2024 to 2025, rape dropped by 7.6%, robbery was down by 19.5%, and overall property crime fell 12.4%.

According to the CCJ, there was an 18% drop in murders, but nine of the 13 crimes examined saw decreases on average. Reported carjackings had the largest decrease at 47%, while drug offenses and domestic violence rose 12% and 8%, respectively. Shoplifting, which rose 5%, is the only measured crime that has so far remained above where it was in the first half of 2019.

How does crime in the US compare to other developed democracies?

Because different countries have different standards for recording and counting violent crimes, the most direct comparison is homicide rates.

The 2025 rate of homicides per 100,000 people in the US, according to the FBI, is 4.1. Canada’s rate in 2024 was 2.7, the United Kingdom was 1.1 in 2021, France was 1.3 in 2024, and Australia was .9 in 2023, all according to data from Our World in Data. This makes homicide rates in the US in 2025 about twice that of Canada’s most recent records.

When looking specifically at gun violence, the gap grows wider. The Centers for Disease Control showed 12,850 people were intentionally killed with a firearm in the US in 2025, or about 3.8 firearm deaths per 100,000 population, according to an analysis by The Trace, an outlet dedicated to reporting specifically on gun violence.

This is larger than the recorded 0.5 firearm deaths per 100,000 in Canada in 2022, 0.13 in Australia, and 0.02 in the United Kingdom, using data from Open Crime.