Recession Odds: Still High—But Forecasts Better Than Expected

Inflation has begun to ease and economists are weighing the odds of the possibility of a recession in 2023—and while it still seems likely, it’s not nearly the sure bet it seemed just months ago.

A recession is defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)—the official recession scorekeeper—as “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months,” though economists also believe two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth constitute a technical recession.

While the NBER can use indicators to gauge if the economy is in a recession or not, it can take anywhere between 4 to 21 months before the committee officially announces that the U.S. is in a recession.

A recent survey from the National Association of Business Economists (NABE) shows that economists believe the likelihood that the U.S. is or will approach a recession is down to 56%, dropping from the previous survey in which two thirds of those polled believed a recession was imminent.