Split-ticket voters play outsized role in critical midterm contests

Voters split their tickets — supporting a Democrat in one race and a Republican in another — in some of the most important states in this year's midterms.

Why it matters: Even in a hyper-partisan era, the quality of individual candidates clearly still matters — maybe even enough to tip the balance of power in the Senate.

"Both parties and the media love polarization porn, but normal voters know the electorate is volatile and ticket-splitters are common," said Liam Kerr, the co-founder of WelcomePAC, which tried to gin up Republican votes for Democrat Tim Ryan in Ohio's Senate race.

What we're watching: In close Senate races like Georgia and Arizona, where the margins may fall under one or two points, split-ticket voters have the potential to decide the final results.

Georgia's Republican Gov. Brian Kemp easily dispatched Democrat Stacey Abrams by seven points, but GOP Senate nominee Herschel Walker is narrowly trailing Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock.

The Georgia Senate race is headed to a Dec. 6 runoff — a litmus test for how well candidates fare when the more popular candidate from the party is no longer on the ticket.