New York special election to test whether abortion is weakening midterm red wave

A special congressional election in upstate New York on Tuesday could offer a unique window into whether abortion access is animating voters as much as Democrats hope it can.

Republican Marc Molinaro and Democrat Pat Ryan are squaring off this week in New York’s 19th Congressional District, which former Rep. Antonio Delgado vacated in May to become the state’s lieutenant governor.

Polls suggest the race is extremely tight heading into an Election Day that analysts will watch closely for clues about the GOP’s strength. While Republicans have for months expected to wrest control of Congress away from Democrats by decisive margins, more recent numbers suggest the red wave so frequently predicted by pundits could be considerably weaker by November.

The New York race has provided a chance for each party to prove its theory of the case for the midterm elections. Democrats have bet the Supreme Court’s landmark decision this summer on abortion will anger enough otherwise disinterested voters to overcome the lack of enthusiasm pollsters detected earlier this year.

Republicans have banked on a backlash to the struggling economy to sweep them into congressional majorities.

For his part, Molinaro has drilled down on the areas in which Democrats are arguably the weakest: crime and high prices.