China’s Taiwan Invasion Plans May Get Faster and Deadlier

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has fueled concern over China’s plans for Taiwan, which it has repeatedly threatened to invade. Some speculate that the odds of invasion have increased, while others argue that Western unity and Russian military failures should counsel Chinese caution regarding the island.

This discussion conflates two different questions: Has the Ukraine conflict changed Beijing’s willingness to use force against Taiwan? And has the Ukraine conflict altered Beijing’s and the Chinese People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) assessments of its ability to conduct a successful amphibious invasion of Taiwan?

China’s willingness to use force is a political decision that is shaped by more than just assessments of military capabilities. Even if China is not confident it can successfully execute an amphibious invasion of Taiwan, Beijing could believe that the geopolitical and internal costs of not using force outweigh the risk of military failure. Beijing could instruct the PLA to engage in a significant military operation short of an invasion, such as a seizure of key islands in the Taiwan Strait, or to adjust its invasion plans to increase China’s chance of political success.

To date, there is no clear evidence that the Ukraine conflict has altered China’s willingness to use force against Taiwan. Beijing remains ready to use force if Taipei crosses Beijing’s redlines. The Ukraine crisis has not caused China to revise or add additional redlines. The power differential between China and Taiwan continues to grow to Beijing’s advantage—this allows the Chinese leadership to argue that time is on Beijing’s side and China does not need to take immediate action against Taiwan.