What A Flurry Of Democratic Departures Means For The 2022 House Race

Just a few hours after we published this article, Democratic Rep. Alan Lowenthal of California announced his retirement from the House.

With Lowenthal’s retirement, 20 House Democrats have now announced they will not seek reelection in 2022, compared with 11 Republicans. Although California has not completed its redistricting process, Lowenthal represents a heavily Democratic district around Long Beach, so unless he ended up facing another incumbent Democrat, he likely wouldn’t have had much trouble winning reelection. But with Republicans favored to take back the House next year, Lowenthal might have decided it wasn’t worth sticking around.

We can’t know for sure what the 2022 electoral environment will look like, but we do know that the president’s party usually struggles during midterm elections. In fact, history would suggest Republicans have a very good shot at taking back the House, considering Democrats hold only a 222-to-213 seat edge.1 Moreover, President Biden’s poor approval rating, public concern about COVID-19 and inflation plus the GOP’s strong performance in recent elections all augur well for Republicans.

Members of Congress know this, too. So it’s no wonder that of the 30 House members who’ve called it quits so far, 19 are Democrats while just 11 are Republicans, as the table below shows. Tellingly, too, many Democrats are abandoning competitive turf that will be difficult for their party to defend.