Why Biden’s approval rating isn’t recovering

President Joe Biden’s honeymoon period came to an end this summer, due, in part, to the rise of the delta variant and a chaotic U.S. exit from Afghanistan. But even as new reported COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations fall and attention on Afghanistan fades, his approval rating hasn’t bounced back.

Though Biden was popular during his early months in office, in July, his approval rating began to take a dip. In late August, his disapproval rating overtook his approval rating for the first time, and he hasn’t recovered.

Currently, Biden has a 49.2% disapproval rating and 44.5% approval, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.

This pattern is a departure from how President Donald Trump’s approval ratings behaved. Trump was unpopular during his entire term and his rating didn’t see much fluctuation one way or the other from month to month.

In other words, people made their minds up about Trump early on and didn’t change. Though Biden remains more popular than Trump ever was as president, many Americans have changed their mind about him.

Between July and September, Biden’s approval fell among most demographic groups, according to a Pew Research Center survey released last month. Some of the most significant declines were among Americans who are Black (-18%), Hispanic (-16%), have a high school degree or less (-15%), Asian (-14%), or between 18 and 29 years old (-14%).