What the numbers say about Trump's chances at reelection

With nine weeks until the 2020 presidential election, several factors are unfolding that will likely determine whether President Trump will be reelected. One major factor is how the electorate has changed since 2016.

First, consider that the share of voters supporting third-party candidates is much smaller in 2020 than it was in 2016. In 2020, former Vice President Joe Biden has a 2-to-1 lead over Trump among those who voted for Jill Stein and Gary Johnson in 2016. One survey shows that 47 percent of Stein and Johnson supporters will vote for Biden, while 20 percent plan to vote for Trump or support another third-party candidate in 2020. If that lead for Biden holds, Trump could lose in November.