The Statistical Case for Reopening Georgia Is Weak

Just days after the Trump administration set out careful benchmarks for states to meet before reopening their economies, four governors announced plans that basically ignore them.

Georgia Governor Brian Kemp will allow many businesses to reopen on Friday. In South Carolina, some retailers and its beaches are already open. The governors of Tennessee and Ohio will begin phased restarts on May 1. Yet all of these states have seen Covid-19 case counts, day over day, jump within the past few days. The White House guidelines call for two weeks of sustained decline.

South Carolina, Georgia and Ohio are in the bottom 10 states in terms of tests run per 100,000 residents — arguably violating a second White House benchmark that says, before reopening, states should be fully ready to test front-line health workers. States are also supposed to have broad coronavirus surveillance systems and track-and-trace programs in place. None of the four states has fully met this mark.

Georgia plans to allow gyms, bowling alleys and other businesses to open this Friday, April 24. Theaters and restaurants can follow three days later. (All will be required to institute distancing measures.) This shift will probably lead to a substantial increase in activity. On Monday, Kemp said his decision comes as new diagnoses in the state appear to be flattening. But Georgia looks as if it may be at a plateau only if you ignore the biggest-ever daily jump in new cases statewide, reported on April 17. The state will be relaxing restrictions within a week of what still isn’t confirmed to be a peak of new infections.