Biden’s Delegate Lead Is Small, but Could Be Hard to Overcome

Joe Biden not only reclaimed his status as a front-runner on Super Tuesday, but his victories also gave him a clear path to amassing enough delegates to clinch the nomination by the Democratic National Convention.

Bernie Sanders, the left wing’s champion, has dodged a knockout blow for now. While he has lost his lead in pledged delegates, he remains competitive in the delegate count, and he has probably stopped Mr. Biden well short of an overall majority of delegates awarded on Super Tuesday.

But an Upshot analysis suggests that the close delegate race might not last for long. If the race doesn’t take a decisive turn in favor of Mr. Sanders, Mr. Biden is likely to build an insurmountable delegate lead over the next few weeks.

Mr. Biden largely swept the Eastern half of the country, where most of the delegates awarded after Super Tuesday are at stake. And in many states, Mr. Sanders was able to forestall greater defeats only because of the large number of early voters who cast their ballots before the South Carolina race, when the party’s moderate voters were still divided. He will no longer have that advantage.