A coronavirus recession would likely end Trump's presidency

The global coronavirus outbreak might accomplish something that myriad bad polls haven't: make Republicans fear losing the 2020 presidential election.

Until now, survey after survey has consistently shown President Trump losing to the Democrats in November. Like, to all of the Democrats. Yet Republicans have remained confident. They remember how the #FakePolls showed Trump losing to Hillary Clinton four years ago. More importantly, perhaps, GOPers have a deep faith that the strong economy will provide a powerful tailwind to Trump's re-election campaign.

But the plunging stock market, badly spooked by the unpredictable spread and impact of the virus, is suggesting the tailwind might turn into a headwind — and that could mean a one-term Trump presidency. Wall Street banks are already cutting their economic growth forecasts for the first half of the year. Beyond that, they're not so sure, an uncertainty reflected in wildly gyrating markets. Economic predictions about consumer demand and supply-chain disruptions are now also pandemic predictions. JPMorgan just trimmed its second-quarter projection for U.S. GDP growth by a quarter percent to 1.75 percent, but in a report to clients added that "extensive domestic 'community spreading' would prompt a larger downward revision."

Economic forecasts are always tricky business. Now, in addition to the usual mix of jobs numbers, consumer surveys, and corporate earnings reports, economists have to factor the spread of a virus whose transmissibility and lethality remains unclear. Economic consultancy Capital Economics concedes "there is no way our models can incorporate the risk of a widespread coronavirus outbreak in the U.S. which, just like it appears to have done in China, would almost inevitably cause a recession." As it is, Moody's Analytics predicts a 40 percent chance that the virus will grow into a global pandemic that would indeed push the United States and the rest of the global economy into a recession.