Bernie’s Margin of Victory in New Hampshire: 1 Point

The final average of New Hampshire polls showed Bernie Sanders leading in New Hampshire by 7.4 points, but his margin of victory over Pete Buttigieg is 1.3 points with all but a handful of precincts left to count. Sanders’s margin over Buttigieg in the final popular vote in Iowa was almost identical: 1.4 points.

The Vermont socialist is obviously the frontrunner: He’s consolidating his wing of the party, while the rest of the party remains fractured. FiveThirtyEight gives him much better odds of winning a majority of pledged delegates than any other candidate.

The similarities between Sanders 2020 and Trump 2016 are indeed uncanny, but it’s worth keeping in mind some of the differences. While Sanders barely won New Hampshire, Trump carried the state by 20 points. In 2016, Trump followed up his New Hampshire blowout with a 22-point victory in Nevada and a ten-point victory in South Carolina. He had a lot of momentum heading into Super Tuesday, where he came in first in seven out of eleven races.