US Homicide Rates Drop By 21%, Lowest Level Since 1900

A new study by the Council on Criminal Justice (CCJ) found 2025's murder rate dropped by 21% from 2024 and could be the lowest murder rate in the US since 1900.

The Details: After examining violent crime in 35 cities, the report found a decline in 11 of 13 major crime offenses between 2024 and 2025, with nine crime categories falling by at least 10%. Carjacking rates fell the most with a 43% decline, followed by robbery (-23%), gun assault (-22%), homicide (-21%), aggravated assault (-9%) and domestic violence (-2%). The report noted that when nationwide FBI data is released this year, the 2025 homicide rate could fall to about 4.0 per 100,000 residents, which would be the lowest recorded rate since 1900 and the largest single-year percentage decline on record. Drug offenses were the only crime category to increase, with a 7% increase, while sexual assault crimes remained the same

For Context: Violent crimes rates have been falling after an increase during the COVID-19 pandemic. According to the report, overall fatal violent crime fell 5% between 2019 and 2025, with cities with the highest pre-pandemic homicide levels experiencing a decrease of fatal violent crime by -36% during this time. Some of these cities include Denver, Washington, DC, Los Angeles, Albuquerque, Atlanta, Baltimore and Chicago.

What the Left Said: Outlets on the left emphasized crime rates had already been dropping over time. The Atlantic (Left bias) outlined possible explanations including, "sharper policing strategy, more police overtime, low unemployment, the lure of digital life, the post-pandemic return to normalcy." It focused on the role of policing, saying "staffing and strategy vary widely from place to place" so policing "can hardly explain gains that are so widespread." New York Times (Lean Left) challenged the idea the drop was due to President Trump's policies. It cited his deployment of the National Guard to target unauthorized immigrants, which it said "dampen[ed] pedestrian traffic and other activity." 

What the Right Said: Outlets on the right, including Fox News (Right) and Daily Caller (Right) credited Trump's law enforcement policies. The Daily Caller quoted White House spokespeople who said President Trump was "delivering" on his promise to make America safe and that "this is what happens when you have a President who fully mobilizes federal law enforcement."

The Center: The Hill (Center) quoted the CCJ President saying the drop could be due to "criminal justice policies, programs, and rhetoric, big advances in crime-fighting technologies, and big social, economic, and cultural shifts all happening at the same time."

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