Is The US Headed Into a Recession? Some Forecasters, Firms Disagree

Several prominent figures have predicted a recession this year due to President Donald Trump's tariff policy. How likely is a recession, and what would indicate the US is heading into one? 

Recession Predictions: Chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase Jamie Dimon said a recession is a likely outcome of Trump's tariffs. "I hear it from just everybody now, ‘I'm going to cut back a little bit, I'm gonna wait, see what happens.’ That is kind of recessionary talk," he added. Larry Summers, top economic advisor to former President Barack Obama, also predicted a recession. Last Thursday, JP Morgan predicted a 60% chance of a 2025 recession, up from its previous prediction of 40%. On Monday, Goldman Sachs raised its prediction from 35% to 45%. As of Wednesday, betting market start-up Kalshi had the odds of a recession this year at 70%, and Polymarket had it at 65%. 

Anti-Recession: However, others said it's unlikely the US will slip into a recession, including the American Bankers Association, which put the risk at 30%. Economic prediction service Oxford Economics also cast doubt on the chances of a recession. Wells Fargo said, "[T]he solid underlying fundamentals of the U.S. economy should prevent it from slipping into recession this year."

Indicators: HuffPost (Left bias) cataloged atypical recession indicators from the service industry. It pointed out that strippers and sex workers are often the first to notice signs of a recession based on their earnings. Other indicators included the type of beer people drink, declining sales of men's underwear, increasing sales of lipstick (a cheap luxury that substitutes normally more expensive purchases), increasing brunettes due to the expense of hair upkeep, and falling paid subscriptions to dating apps. 

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