Odds of U.S. Recession Hit 70% on Betting Market Kalshi

Bettors on prediction-market startup Kalshi are assessing the chances of the U.S. economy entering a recession this year at 70%. Before President Trump roiled markets with his tariff announcement last week, they were hovering just above 40%.

On Polymarket, another popular betting market, the odds of a U.S. recession in 2025 stood at 65% on Wednesday morning, up from 42% on April 1.