Do Recent Democratic Wins Cast Doubt on GOP's Midterm Prospects?

Amid recent triumphs for the Democratic party, confidence in the Republican party's chances of winning more control in the 2022 midterm elections has waned.

President Joe Biden's approval rating has climbed four percentage points in the last month from a low of 37%, according to FiveThirtyEight (Center bias), amid the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act and the announcement of broad student loan forgiveness. And in New York's 2022 special election this week, Democrat Pat Ryan scored a surprise victory over moderate Republican Marc Molinaro in the state's 19th Congressional district.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) said recently that "there’s probably a greater likelihood the House flips than the Senate" and that "we’re likely to have an extremely close Senate, either our side up slightly or their side up slightly" after the elections. Cook Report (Center bias) said it now expects Republicans to gain 10-20 seats in the House, down from its 20-35 seat gain estimate in May. Multiple election forecasting models project Republicans to win back the House while Democrats maintain the Senate.

Coverage across the political spectrum suggested that Republicans' chances of winning big in November have decreased. The New York Times reported that it's "becoming increasingly hard to find any concrete signs of Republican strength." The Washington Times reported that the Democratic party "has been on the rebound this summer, starting with the abortion ruling that Democrats have seized on to energize their voting base."