Do Recent Democratic Wins Cast Doubt on GOP's Midterm Prospects?
Summary from the AllSides News Team
Amid recent triumphs for the Democratic party, confidence in the Republican party's chances of winning more control in the 2022 midterm elections has waned.
President Joe Biden's approval rating has climbed four percentage points in the last month from a low of 37%, according to FiveThirtyEight (Center bias), amid the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act and the announcement of broad student loan forgiveness. And in New York's 2022 special election this week, Democrat Pat Ryan scored a surprise victory over moderate Republican Marc Molinaro in the state's 19th Congressional district.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) said recently that "there’s probably a greater likelihood the House flips than the Senate" and that "we’re likely to have an extremely close Senate, either our side up slightly or their side up slightly" after the elections. Cook Report (Center bias) said it now expects Republicans to gain 10-20 seats in the House, down from its 20-35 seat gain estimate in May. Multiple election forecasting models project Republicans to win back the House while Democrats maintain the Senate.
Coverage across the political spectrum suggested that Republicans' chances of winning big in November have decreased. The New York Times reported that it's "becoming increasingly hard to find any concrete signs of Republican strength." The Washington Times reported that the Democratic party "has been on the rebound this summer, starting with the abortion ruling that Democrats have seized on to energize their voting base."
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From the Left
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In New York, Democrat Pat Ryan won a special election in the Republican-leaning 19th Congressional District against Marc Molinaro, a moderate Republican considered to be one of the National Republican Campaign Committee's top prospects in its bid to gain control of the House next year. In the...
From the Right
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Democrats hope Pat Ryan’s unexpected win in a special election to fill a vacant House seat in New York’s 19th Congressional District is a sign that the Republican Party’s “red wave” will be reduced to a puddle come November.
Top analysts Wednesday downgraded the Republicans’ outlook in the midterm elections and said Democrats may even hang on to their slim majority after Mr. Ryan’s surprise win over Republican Marcus Molinaro.
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April 19th, 2024
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