Report Finds Traces of Military Insider Trading on Polymarket

More than 150 wallets on Polymarket International are thought to be involved in insider trading on US military information, according to a report by the Anti-Corruption Data Collective (ACDC).

The Details: ACDC found 556 accounts that it referred to as "Orcas," which it said typically opened accounts within days of a successful longshot bet and won big in niche markets. Of these, 152 of them placed longshot bets in military and defense markets, winning $8 million collectively at an average win rate of 97.2%, according to Reuters (Center bias). According to the report, those are the wallets most likely to be trading military secrets. CNN (Lean Left) reported that prior to the report's release, Polymarket referred "dozens" of accounts to the Justice Department for investigation into insider trading.

For Context: There have been several instances of suspected insider trading on prediction markets over the last year. In March, bets on a five-day pause on strikes on Iran and a US-Iran ceasefire deal made anonymous users roughly $580 million and $820,000. In April, a US soldier was charged with using classified information to bet on the removal of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in January.

RELATED: The Insight: The Rise of Prediction Markets

How the Media Covered It: Reuters was the first to report on the ACDC report. It framed the finding within other suspected military insider trading this year. It also cited ACDC concerns of copycat trades by bots and "deep-pocketed" users. CNN and the Washington Examiner (Lean Right) both covered Polymarket reporting the accounts to the Justice Department. CNN cited comments from the Polymarket Founder and CEO about the company's efforts to crackdown on insider trading. The outlet wrote these "haven't stopped investigators getting involved" and noted Polymarket is currently subject to lawmakers imposing regulations. 

The Washington Examiner was the only right-leaning source AllSides only found coverage from.

Written by the AllSides staff (of humans). Learn more. Support our mission. Suggest an improvement to this summary.