The trends in New Jersey and Virginia

No two states voted more alike and closer to the national average in last year’s presidential election than the two states that have gubernatorial elections in this odd-numbered year: New Jersey and Virginia. New Jersey voted 51.8% for Kamala Harris and 45.9% for Donald Trump. Virginia voted 51.8% for Harris and 46.1% for Trump. Aside from the seven target states and Democratic underperformance in New Hampshire and Minnesota, these were the two closest states in the country.

They have other similarities. Large percentages of their voters live in metropolitan areas centered on cities outside the state, such as New York City and Washington, D.C. Both of those metro areas have populations far above the national average in education credentials and income...