Democrats are poised to win. But only if they make the election about Trump

Now that Kamala Harris is the presumptive Democratic nominee, you’ll be hearing a lot of speculation about how she might poll against Trump. What if I told you that the polls are almost immaterial to the final election result? Instead of making much ado about who is up and who is down, let’s keep our eyes on a different question – in October, what will voters think this election is about?

The evidence of voter behavior over the last eight years paints a clear picture of what lies ahead. Critically, we can’t...