Former President Donald Trump said FBI data that show homicides and other violent crimes trending down are “fake numbers.” They’re not.
The FBI data for 2023 are preliminary, but crime statistics experts say the reporting behind the overall downward trend is solid, and that trend is validated when compared to data samples from local and state law enforcement reports.
The FBI statistics contradict Trump’s campaign narrative, repeated at a May 1 rally in Wisconsin, about rampant and rising violent crime in the U.S. And polls that show most Americans believe crime is on the increase. But that doesn’t mean the data are wrong or “fudged,” as Trump put it.
The FBI statistics are, however, incomplete, given that they measure only crimes reported to law enforcement — some crimes, such as rape, are historically greatly underreported — and not every law enforcement agency reports its statistics. That has been the case for decades.
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