Wall Street’s last recession holdouts

Calling for recession is contrarian now

At the start of 2023, it was banal to forecast a near-term recession. Today, it’s a risky call. Most economists now see a soft landing as the likeliest way this cycle ends, for good reason. Inflation keeps surprising to the downside. Consumption has powered through high rates. Behind it all is a rock-solid labour market, which added another 200,000 net jobs in November, 50,000 above consensus estimates. As Claudia Sahm argued in our latest Friday interview, supply improvements foiled recession calls.

Nonetheless, a few stragglers on Wall Street remain in the recession camp. And though their arguments proved wrong earlier this year, they are worth considering, if only to understand the risks to the soft landing. With that in mind, where does the case for recession stand?