Azerbaijan Has Conquered Karabakh, but the Conflict Still Isn’t Over

On September 19, Azerbaijan’s army launched a full-scale invasion of the largely Armenian-populated region of Karabakh. The breakaway state, also known as the Republic of Artsakh, surrended within twenty-four hours, agreeing to transfer its territory to Azerbaijan’s control and dissolve at the end of this year. Its fall came at the cost of hundreds of lives and the massive displacement of the Armenian population from Karabakh.

If Artsakh is now rapidly reaching its end, this owes to a dramatically changed domestic and regional balance of hegemony, which has shifted in Azerbaijan’s favor since the forty-four-day war in the autumn of 2020. It also owes to a process in which Azerbaijan has built partnerships with the dominant powers, from Turkey and Russia to the West, amid wider geopolitical turmoil.