How Paxton’s impeachment trial may have a huge impact on Texas’ most powerful Republican leaders

Attorney General Ken Paxton’s political career will be on the line when his impeachment trial starts Tuesday. But the effects will reverberate far beyond the embattled Republican.

Paxton’s potential removal carries massive political stakes for all of Texas’ Republican leaders, from Gov. Greg Abbott to Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick and House Speaker Dade Phelan. No matter what happens, the trial is set to shake up the state’s politics like few events in recent history, with aftershocks that could last for years.

“You’d have to go back to the Pa Ferguson impeachment trial (of 1917) for something that would have such a profound impact on Texas politics,” said Mark Jones, a political science professor at Rice University. “And that was in a different era where people tended to arrive, stay in office for a few years and then leave. Paxton, Abbott, Patrick, they all arrived back in 2014. This has been a long-standing group in the highest levels of power.”

Paxton is accused of taking bribes and abusing his power to help Austin real estate investor Nate Paul, a friend and campaign donor. He has denied all wrongdoing.

His removal would give Abbott the rare opportunity to hand-pick a replacement, likely setting off intense behind-the-scenes jockeying for one of the most powerful positions in Texas. It also would strengthen Phelan’s claim on the speaker’s gavel heading into 2024, GOP strategists and political experts said, while dealing a blow to Paxton’s right-wing allies, who have promised to campaign against pro-impeachment Republicans.