Kyrsten Sinema’s surprise switch is an epic gamble

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s surprise announcement that she is registering as an independent is an epic gamble born of necessity. It’s probably her only chance at keeping her Arizona Senate seat beyond 2024. Yet even if she does run as an independent, winning reelection is far from guaranteed, to put it charitably.

Sinema — who alienated many Democratic voters through her opposition to large swaths of President Biden’s agenda — was certain to face a Democratic primary challenger in 2024. And she all but certainly would have lost.

That leaves becoming an independent as her only option if she wants to remain in office beyond one term. But even so, Sinema will face a highly difficult reelection battle, because there will all but certainly be a Democratic nominee running for her Senate seat, and the Democratic Party in Arizona will all but certainly support that nominee.

“The Arizona Democratic Party expects at least one Democrat to run for the Senate seat,” a source familiar with the party’s thinking told me. “The party will continue supporting Democrats up and down the ticket.”