Early bellwethers: Key races to watch once polls close on election night

The 2022 midterms are shaping up to culminate in an unpredictable election night, with recent surveys showing close fights in a host of key races that will determine which party controls Congress.

A few points in either direction, within the margin of error in many polls, could be the difference between Democrats overperforming to hold at least one chamber for the next two years — or Republicans running the table with commanding victories.

In the 50-50 Senate, Republicans need a net gain of just one seat to capture the majority. In the House, Republicans have 212 members and need to add six to guarantee a majority.

Here’s a guide to some of the competitive races in which polls close early, which election forecasters say will carry a larger significance in reading the direction of the political environment.

Indiana’s polls are among the first to close, at 7 p.m. ET, and the state’s 1st Congressional District, based in Gary in the northwest, will provide an early glimpse of whether Democrats can hold their own and limit the damage in a tough year.