FiveThirtyEight projection shows dead heat in race for control of Senate

A projection from election handicapper FiveThirtyEight shows a dead heat in the race for control of the Senate, with each party given a 50% chance of winning a majority in the upper chamber next year.

The projection is derived using a simulation in which the midterm elections are run 40,000 times and 100 random samples are drawn from these results. The latest iteration was released Tuesday, with 50 times showing Republicans picking up a crucial 51st seat and 50 times showing Democrats maintaining at least 50 seats and staying in the majority with Vice President Kamala Harris as the tiebreaking vote.

The model shows the range of outcomes it "considers possible," with two of the samples showing a 57-seat majority for Democrats and two showing a 56-seat majority for Republicans. Most of the outcomes are clustered around the 50-50 mark, suggesting that whatever the outcome is, the ruling party will not have a large majority.

The road to that majority runs through just a few swing states. Nevada and Georgia are the two "toss-up" races in which major election forecasters concur that the headwinds are favoring neither the Democratic nor Republican candidates. In Georgia, incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) is facing a challenge from football star Herschel Walker (R). Recent scandals, including two ex-girlfriends accusing him of paying for their abortions despite his anti-abortion platform, have not noticeably hampered Walker's chances. Nevada's former state Attorney General Adam Laxalt (R) is pushing ahead of Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D) in some polls in their narrow Senate race.