Why no one’s giving Tim Ryan a realistic shot to win
2022 Elections,Elections,2022 Ohio Senate Election,Tim Ryan,JD Vance
Ohio was once the fulcrum of American politics. For most of the first two decades of the 21st century, it was the pivotal swing state. John Kerry’s narrow loss there in 2004 caused the reelection of George W. Bush. In 2012, Fox News viewers watched, stunned, as the state was called for Barack Obama, dooming the hopes of challenger Mitt Romney.
After Donald Trump won it twice by eight points, its status as a swing state has been called into question. The only remaining statewide elected Democrat is three-term senator Sherrod Brown, while Republicans, aided by precise gerrymanders, have maintained an iron grip on the state legislature and the congressional delegation.
In recent months, though, the state’s Senate race has captured the imagination of national Democrats. The Democratic nominee, 10-term Congress member Tim Ryan, has mounted a surprisingly strong race against the Republican candidate, Trump-backed author J.D. Vance, and has kept the race close in public polling. Ryan enjoyed a strong summer when Democrats were surging in national polls and Vance was off the airwaves recovering from a brutal primary. Currently, FiveThirtyEight gives Ryan a one in four chance of prevailing while the longtime representative is bewailing the lack of investment from national Democrats. Does Ryan have red a chance? Or is he a forlorn hope in a Republican-leaning state in a Republican-leaning year?
