Probability of Global Recession Nearing 50 Percent: Citigroup Economists

Citigroup economists have forecast the chance of a global recession nearing 50 percent as central banks hike interest rates and consumer demand for goods drops off.

“The experience of history indicates that disinflation often carries meaningful costs for growth and we see the aggregate probability of recession as now approaching 50 percent,” economists led by Nathan Sheets said in a report on Wednesday.

“Central banks may yet engineer the soft—or ‘softish’—landings embodied in their forecasts (and in ours), but this will require supply shocks to ebb and demand to remain resilient.”

According to the report, Citigroup economists now forecast the world economy to grow by 3 percent this year and 2.8 percent next year.